Circle of Competence Issue #90

December 15, 2019

QUOTE OF THE WEEK

 

"I don't tell people, 'You're okay the way that you are.' That's not the right story. The right story is, 'You're way less than you could be.'" - Jordan Peterson

 

 

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

 

Why boomers, not just millenials, are fueling the urban apartment surge (Curbed)

 

Much has been said of the millennial migration to urban centers, but virtually nothing has been written highlighting boomers' migration back to the city. The key demographic trend of our era, the aging retirement of the boomers will amount to a large of transition in wealth tied up in operating businesses as well as the real estate they leave behind. According to Neils Jensen at Absolute Return Partners, this is one of the most important megatrends currently worth studying. A few quick thoughts of my own: 

 

- The retirement of boomers will increase the supply of available real estate in suburban and rural areas as they migrate towards urban centers with convenience in mind (near children, food, healthcare, amenities, community, etc.). It remains to be seen whether this swell in available suburban homes will be filled by aging millennials who generally prefer more urban settings.

 

- Citizens aged 30-50 seem to have a net negative migration away from urban centers towards suburbs according to the piece above - I interpret this as those people wanting to raise young children away from the city as well as wanting to escape the hustle of the city they experienced during their 20's. When the kids are grown and empty nesting becomes the new normal, older adults aged 55+ crave community, convenience, and amenities not found as easily in suburban or rural areas. This is just my interpretation and I am open to other lines of thought.

 

- The majority of wealth in the US is controlled by boomers. The way they will deploy this wealth at the end of their lives will encompass real estate (retirement communities or the convenience of urban living), health care (assisted/senior living and general health care needs/procedures), and leisure/entertainment. Opportunities will abound for the next generation to cater to their demands.

 

 

LINKS

 

Investing:

 

Meet Wall Street's best dealmaker: billionaire Orlando Bravo of Thoma Bravo (Forbes)

 

Q&A with Stephen Schwarzman (PitchBook)

 

Gazing into the recession crystal ball (Reuters)

 

The history of interest rates over 670 years (Visual Capitalist)

 

Ben Graham, the father of financial analysis (Irving Kahn, CFA)

 

Berkshire Hathaway Executive Tracy Cool Raises $340MM in IPO (MorningStar)

 

 

Technology:

 

Twitter: enough already - an open letter to CEO Jack Dorsey (Professor Scott Galloway)

 

52 things I learned this year (Tom Whitwell)

 

Market research, wireframing, and designing your startup (Stanford Startups 001 Lecture)

 

The lesson to unlearn (Paul Graham)

 

 

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