Circle of Competence Issue #84
QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"The best call option to have is cash." - Josh Wolfe
FOOD FOR THOUGHT
First things first, I had a subscriber reach out about taking Columbia's online value investing class. Has anyone taken this class that would be willing to share their candid opinion and whether you'd recommend taking it? All responses will be kept anonymous.
Now, on to the top material from this week.
What will a recession do to venture capital? Josh Wolfe and Raoul Pal discusses increased valuations in venture capital and the wider capital markets (Real Vision)
Josh Wolfe and Raoul Pal make great points that, taken together, paint a precarious position for the global economy over the next few years:
- US yield curve is inverted
- Many big pensions, retirement funds, and institutional capital are all pushed out on the yield curve as well as out on the risk curve to get returns
- $15+ trillion in negative yielding debt (see the 'Integrating Investor' posts below for more on this)
- The last time corporate buybacks eclipsed corporate capital expenditures was 2008