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Seeking Truth

If I told you what I believed to be Truth, would you believe me? It depends. Do your religious beliefs align with mine? How about your political views? Economic philosophy? I find it ironic that as the internet has proliferated and penetrated society, instead of a 'marketplace of ideas' fostering healthy debate and pushing us towards a greater knowledge of what is likely true, we attack the merit of people instead of the merit of their ideas. Likewise, unfortunately, people tend to identify themselves based on their beliefs and take personal offense at anyone who disagrees. There are tribes for every debate. And each side hurls stones at the other side's people instead of their ideas. A few

Circle of Competence Issue #112

Truth in the age of mass opinion, Howard Marks' memo, credit default swap auctions, the rise of TikTok, Beijing moves in on Hong Kong, a

Circle of Competence Issue #111

Industry primers, Howard Marks on the dollar, 1918 influenza pandemic, Ray Dalio on big cycles over the past 500 years, solar's cheap fu

Inflation or Deflation?

I've been reading and thinking about the debate between two camps recently: the larger camp who believes that (hyper)inflation is inevitable given the large-scale monetary and fiscal stimulus that is ongoing, and the smaller camp that believes we will see deflation due to the economic demand collapse that has been forced upon the nation due to the coronavirus outbreak. I'd like to point you to two pieces espousing opposite views that are worth your time. Ray Dalio's latest thinking shows historical examples of fiat currency devaluations and the underlying currency's value against hard assets such as gold and silver. He has put out multiple pieces lately on how he views the world economic ord

Circle of Competence Issue #110

The cases for inflation vs. deflation, commodity markets and COVID-19, decline of higher education model, Peter Zeihan on geopolitics, mindf

Circle of Competence Issue #109

Ray Dalio on the changing world order, Berkshire Hathaway's Annual Meeting, Private Equity's Minsky moment, Josh Kopelman on the see

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