Skin in the Game

This week I watched Nassim Taleb's talk at BlockCon where he explored the concept of having 'skin in the game' and how asymmetric risk sharing pervades our everyday lives. The example of asymetric risk and reward that Taleb loves to showcase is the 2008 great financial crisis, where the large bank CEO's received millions in severance pay while tax payers were left holding the tab to bail out the banks. But how should we think about the thousands of businesses and millions of citizens who have been given lifelines by the government in the form of a $2 trillion stimulus package to combat the economic fallout from COVID-19? Most of these businesses were prepared for normal circumstances, and ev

An Update on Texas Pacific Landtrust

Disclaimer: I am not your financial advisor, and this is not financial advice. Do your own research. Speaking of skin in the game, on February 15th, I wrote a case study on Texas Pacific Landtrust. At that point, it was trading at roughly $770 per share. I was long, and remain long, and have continued to purchase shares as they have declined to current levels at $379 per share. At current prices, the company is trading at around 9x trailing earnings (which will most likely be impacted by the precipitous decline in oil prices). The shares of TPL have been absolutely hammered with the rest of the energy sector as demand has dried up for oil and the rest of the oil-producing oil has refused to

Circle of Competence Issue #104

Skin in the game, update on TPL, staggering unemployment claims, oil storage markets, what to look for in 10-Ks, debt-laden industries, AI c

Circle of Competence Issue #103

Macro data dashboard, locking arms, notable fintwit, Tom Russo on intelligent investing, CBOE on central bank digital currency, Francis Coll

Circle of Competence Issue #102

COVID-19 model and thoughts, oil price war, looming credit overhang, fund letters, Mike Maples on investing in tech, Stripe and Shopify brea

Circle of Competence Issue #101

Howard Marks' latest memo, Absolute Return Partners on reversion to the mean, long term real estate cycle prediction, Peter Thiel on Zer

Circle of Competence #100

Updated Business Vault, Berkshire Hathaway Letter, investment fund letters, mental models. Peter Thiel on accomplishing more technologically


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